Friday, February 16, 2007

COGNITA ANTE SALIS - (Look Before You Leap)

Obviously, the likelihood of finding employment is an important consideration when choosing a career. There’s an abundance of information published relating to occupational employment trends, where the jobs are, and what are the prospects for future employment. Often times too much information is confusing. Conversely, locking into a single dataset that appears to be most relevant can also be misleading. Given the magnitude of time and money invested for career preparation, an additional issue concerns the responsibility of the information source to change or withdraw the message when the dynamics of the labor market change. To illustrate, we pose the following question.

Is investing in a career in Information Technology a smart decision?

Look to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the official source of occupational projections for the answer. “America’s Career InfoNet”, a widely publicized federal career information site, lists six Information Technology occupations in their list of the 25 fastest growing occupations over the 2004 – 2014 projection period. They are Network Systems and Data Communication Analysts; Computer Software Engineers, applications; Computer Software Engineers, systems software; Network and Computer Systems Administrators; Database Administrators; and Computer Systems Analysts. Combined these occupations are expected to grow a robust 42% over the projection period compared with an overall rate of 13% for all occupations. These occupations are expected to create 795,000 new jobs in the nation through 2014. Also, the industrial sector – Computer Systems Design and related services is forecast to expand 39%. Smart decision? You bet!!!

Look to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the official source of occupational and industry statistics for the answer. The December 2006, “Monthly Labor Review” published by BLS states that employment in Computer and Mathematical occupations declined 127,000 or 4% from 2000 to 2005. The six occupations listed above comprise about two-thirds of the Computer and Mathematical occupational category. Furthermore, jobs in the Computer Systems Design industry fell 59,100 or 5.0% over the first half of the decade. Smart decision????

We’re familiar with the matrix model and regression methodology used by BLS to develop industry and occupational projections and would not attempt to suggest a better method. However, we do suggest that when the projection data conflict so strongly with current trends, there is a grave responsibility to inform the public. The projection data are widely used by high school and college students and counselors across to nation to facilitate informed career decision-making. The human and monetary investments are too great to let this go unnoticed.

Smart decision – look beyond the numbers.