Note to Gen X and Gen Y'ers

As you know, the purpose of this blog is to stimulate thought and discussion. So, from time to time, we invite guests to share their thoughts. Let’s welcome John Boyle, II.

John Boyle
P.O. Box 1008, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106‑1008 · FAX: 734/665-0392 · Phone: 734/665-9514 x-220

Note to Gen X and Gen Y

......and the beat goes on....

In any event, I hope my writings help you Gen Xers and Gen Yers decide the following :

NEVER vote for any ADDITIONAL taxes EVER. If a tax is important, tell the taxing entity to cut from taxes that are NOT important.
Here's where they can cut :
NO government employee should be allowed to retire on the public dole until age 62 at the earliest. Many government employees can retire with full benefits (pensions at 75%+ wage replacement plus gold-plated health insurance for life) at "20 and out" -- by age 38 (e.g., Wayne County, MI; Taylor, MI; City of Detroit police; Tampa, FL; most judges. the U.S. military), most of the remaining employees can retire at "25 and out" - by age 43, and almost all (95%+) can retire at "30 and out" -- by age 48. As I like to point out to the tax-and-spend enthusiasts in Michigan -- if you are 46 and don't have $2.5 million in the bank, you should have been an Ann Arbor Fire Fighter -- as that's the value of each Fire Fighters retirement benefits after 25 years of service.
DEMAND that your U.S. congressional representatives raise the Social-Security retirement age to 72. Nothing less will make the system viable. Remember, when Social Security was commenced in 1936, life expectancy in America was 57 years and unreduced retirement benefits were not available until age 65. Now, life expectancy is 79 and unreduced retirement benefits are available at age 66. It only works if future generations are willing to live in a Third-World environment and work until they drop.
DEMAND that stupid laws designed to fund the coffers of government and to support the lawyer/court/Attorney Generals/prison "complex" (e.g. imprisoning "deadbeat dads" as felons -- 87% of whom (in Michigan) are making less than $10,000 per year -- and sending them to jail so the taxpayers can pay $51,000 per year to support them and guaranteeing that they will be forever unemployable. Same for marijuana users. Same for speed limits of 25 mph on roads that at a minimum support 35-45 mph.).
The impact of these unaffordable programs and laws is discussed in more depth in the speech I gave
last year at the annual dinner for the Libertarian Party of Michigan (also attached).
Finally, try to avoid jobs where your livelihood will require you to be “politically correct”.
Unfortunately, most in my generation (76 million) appear unwilling to fight the horrific battles necessary to save your generation from an unbearable debt load – so you Gen Xers (60 million) and Gen Yers (76 million) will have to join together in a Coalition for Intergenerational Equity and cast your votes for fiscal sanity.
Remember, don't fall into the trap of "I have to vote for someone who will win" -- if that choice will continue to bankrupt you and your country. Vote your conscience -- and, when others follow your lead, fiscal sanity will return to American government.

Take care,

John

Want to know more about John? Please go to: http://www.jlboyleintl.com/
Now, tell us what YOU think.

HIGHER EDUCATION: THE PATH TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT???

The message in the state is clear and it’s been repeated time and again by the governor, state officials, many policymakers, and academia:

GREATER INVESTMENT AND EMPHASIS ON HIGHER EDUCATION ARE NECESSARY TO FACILITATE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DIVERSIFY THE STATE’S INDUSTRIAL BASE.

They theorize that a highly educated workforce will attract science and technology based industries to the state creating a knowledge-based economy. Michigan’s attractiveness for business retention, start-ups, and relocation will be enhanced because of its superior human capital resource. Consider the logic of the following progression.

- State investment in higher education results in the expected outcome of more Michigan college graduates.

- Michigan gains a competitive advantage in human capital because of its highly educated labor pool.

- Scientific and technology-based industries are drawn to the state to take advantage of its talented labor supply.

- Overall conditions in the state improve with renewed economic growth and a diversified economy.

OR

- State investment in higher education results in the expected outcome of more Michigan college graduates.

- College graduates relocate in states where their skills are in demand rather than amassing an unemployed highly educated labor resource within the state.

- Michigan partially finances the human capital needed in other parts of the country and world.

A recent “Wall Street Journal” article Stopping the Brain Drain (June 11, 2007) cites a study from the University of California that looked at Alabama, West Virginia, and Massachusetts over periods for which they received federal funds for higher education. The results showed that only Massachusetts kept the graduates because of the availability of high technology jobs in the Boston area. The obvious conclusion is that for a state to retain college graduates employment opportunities must exist.

A quantitative econometric study conducted by the “Mackinac Center for Public Policy” in June of 2007 did not show a positive statistical correlation between state and local expenditures on higher education and the rate of economic growth for five, ten, and fifteen year periods. In fact, they found the correlation to be typically negative.

An area’s industrial base dictates the local occupational composition or the types of workers that will be needed in a state or region. Because of the concentration of government and associated jobs located in the nation’s Capitol, the District of Columbia ranks first among the states in the proportion of the population aged 25+ with at least a bachelor’s degree and also first in the percent of workers in professional occupations. As noted earlier, with a significant concentration of technology-based industries, Massachusetts ranks 2nd in both proportion of bachelor’s degrees and professional jobs. New York as expected exhibits the largest proportion of professional workers in the finance industry and likely attracts the most talented MBA’s regardless of where they earned their degree. These are the economic realities that can not be changed by producing more college graduates in any given state.

With 24.7 percent of its 25+ population completing a bachelor’s degree, Michigan ranks 34th in the nation. Michigan continues to rank among the top three states in the proportion of manufacturing jobs to total employment despite huge auto-related losses over the last decade. The large manufacturing component and corresponding job opportunities for those without a college education are consistent with Michigan’s relatively low ranking in college degree attainment. On the positive side for the “knowledge-based” economy, the manufacturing and auto related sector is the state’s most important catalyst for research and technology jobs, as well as engineering, design, and financial services.

Given the mobility of today’s workforce, higher education is basically an import/export industry. With unemployment rates that continually lead the nation, Michigan is a “net importer” of college students, but a “net exporter” of college graduates. This scenario acknowledges the state’s excellent network of universities and colleges and its attractiveness to students. The higher education system is also a significant component of the state’s economic base providing employment and income, conducting and influencing research initiatives, and adding prestige to the state’s image.

However, the model for economic development is complex consisting of multiple variables to create an inviting business climate. Essentially, the model to attract and retain business should address factors affecting profit maximization and creating a pleasant physical environment. It does not appear that an existing highly educated labor pool is a significant variable for economic development, nor does it appear that this goal is obtainable given the export nature of higher education.

With the proposed policy that “higher education is the path to economic growth” receiving much hype and media attention, it seems to be the popular position that receives blind affirmation. Shouldn’t these statements in some way be substantiated? Shouldn’t the reasoning for this conclusion be clearly articulated? Could a supporting study or model be referenced?

Is anyone up to the challenge?

“IN SICKNESS” or “IN HEALTH”

The medical industry and associated occupations have long been publicized as areas of growth and employment opportunities. Demographics certainly substantiate these claims. The need for medical services greatly increases with age. People are living longer and with the aging of the “baby boom” generation, the population aged 65+ is increasing rapidly.

Nevertheless, the affordability of health care and the growing segment of the population without medical insurance may be turning the “health industry” into the “sickness industry”. From 1990 to 2004, the number of individuals nationally with no health insurance has risen by 45.8 million. Obviously, those without health insurance utilize medical services to a lesser extent or when they experience a greater degree of “sickness”.

Also, changes in the nature of private insurance, most significantly the shift to HMO’s, have affected the demand for medical care. HMO’s regulate treatments and access to specialists and hospitals, thereby in many cases limiting consumption. Approximately 25% of the population is now covered by HMO plans.

These factors appear to be slowing job growth in the medical industry. From 2003 through 2006, hospital employment in the U.S. rose 4.0% compared with 5.0% for all private industry jobs. The annual rate of growth of just over one percent was down from 2.4% for the previous three years. Reflecting the shift toward treatment in outpatient settings, the annual rate of employment growth in offices of physicians is still robust but has declined considerably over the last four years.

The recent trend of slower employment growth in the medical industry may be compounded in the future. A growing number of households can no longer budget for rising health insurance premiums. Employers are also restructuring benefit packages to shift the health care burden to the employee.

With the erosion of its manufacturing base, these trends are even more pronounced in Michigan where hospital employment rose only 2% since 2003. Access to medical care is offered to 86% of employees in manufacturing industries compared with only 66% in service industries.

The shortage of medical care workers, particularly nurses is real. However, this shortage is basically an issue of shrinking supply rather than overwhelming demand. Women who comprise the vast majority of the nursing profession are facing many more lucrative career alternatives than in the past. With intensified recruitment efforts, training initiatives, and the scarcity of job opportunities for both men and women in the state; the shortage in the nursing profession will hopefully lessen.
But what’s next? Is the medical industry healthy enough to survive as the panacea for future employment opportunities? Or will the “health industry” evolve into the “sickness industry” when most seek treatment for only catastrophic illnesses because of the unaffordable costs of medical care and insurance?

AN ANALOGY

In what way are the CANE TOAD and “free trade” the same? Well, here’s a hint – Read this to get a clue: http://www.fdrproject.org/pages/toads.htm.

Ok, need another clue? Now read this: http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB117500805386350446-cRRynUb3zQgR2Yxn8wFOt96EOlE_20070404.html?mod=blogs

Well, as long as it was someone else’s job, who cared? But now when it isn’t just your uneducated neighbor who gets whacked – it’s you; this is a disaster. Right?

After all, the cane toad was just supposed to eat beetles, not kill off “…millions of native animals...” Hmm, so free trade was just supposed to eliminate a bunch of overpriced production workers, not us well educated elite.

What economists like Alan Blinder forgot was that the economy is reciprocal: If enough of my neighbors lose their jobs, it’s going to affect me.

Let’s face it folks, all Legacy Systems in the U.S. are up for grabs – including education and the sickness industry.

Does this spell disaster as some are predicting? Nope. It spells O-P-P-O-R-T-U-N-I-T-Y for forward thinking individuals who are willing to renounce greed and make a strong and consistent commitment to innovation, excellence and genuine concern for one’s neighbor.

YEA !

Many, not all in Michigan live in a state of denial: We are, and always will be, DA MOTOR CAPITAL OF DA WORLD. The fact is, we are not. And that’s OK!

If we are truly concerned about financing our enemies (real and imagined) with oil money; and if we are truly concerned about global warming due to emissions, then maybe, just maybe, it’s time to consider becoming THE MASS TRANSPORTATION CAPITAL OF THE WORLD.

Thirty years ago this would be considered to be pure blasphemy in Metro Detroit – and for that matter, all of Michigan. Of course who, thirty years ago, would think that the “Ruskies,” you know, “The Evil Empire,” would now be considered to be our pals? Times have changed folks.

While many definitions of “The Global Economy” abound, one thing that is certainly an underlying component is that U.S. legacy systems (like transportation) are ALL threatened. But this can spell opportunity.

While overpriced auto executives who made some remarkably bad decisions (like continuing to push production of the Gassasaurus Guzzaloris) go whining to Washington, others, like Megabus.com ...

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070316/METRO05/703160388

are seizing the moment. YEA!!!

BUILD IT; THEY WILL COME

The consensus of political and policy-making opinion in the state, led by the Governor, appears to be that the magnet for diversifying Michigan’s economy and attracting new business is a highly skilled and educated workforce. As some suggest, the cost of access to a tuition-free baccalaureate degree for all would be overshadowed by the economic benefits of business start-ups and relocations to the state.

However, Michigan is currently experiencing an out-migration of its young, educated workers. The mobility of today’s workforce is unprecedented with colleges exporting graduates to where the jobs are across the nation and world. If Michigan were to matriculate more individuals with MBA degrees in Finance, would the most talented aspire to work in one of the state’s “cool cities” or on “Wall Street”?

Okay, Michigan is not the financial headquarters of the world, but we consider ourselves the automobile capital. With a well established infrastructure of engineering and design services and robotic technology; a highly skilled, educated workforce to meet the demands of advanced manufacturing processes would surely make the state a more attractive choice for motor vehicle production.

Breaking News: Toyota announces an investment of $1.3 billion to locate a SUV assembly plant in Mississippi that will employ 2,000 workers.

The percent of individuals 25 years and older, who have completed high school according to the U.S. Census Bureau (2005):
Michigan 87.0%
Mississippi 78.0% (ranks 50th in the nation)

Those 25 years and older who have completed a bachelor’s degree.
Michigan 24.7%
Mississippi 18.7% (ranks 49th in the nation)

It doesn’t appear that an existing highly educated workforce was a salient factor in Toyota’s decision.

The average weekly wage for manufacturing workers in 2006 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Michigan $925.34
Mississippi $542.52

The percent of wage and salary workers represented by unions (2006):
Michigan 20.4%
Mississippi 7.3%

It’s unlikely that Toyota will experience difficulty in filling positions across all skill levels and that economic and labor issues bore heavily on their decision. Surely, a highly skilled and educated workforce is a desirable state amenity, but should it be given the ranking as one of the state’s highest priorities for attracting business and achieving industrial diversity?

BUILD IT; THEY WILL COME from Michigan and other parts of the country.

COGNITA ANTE SALIS - (Look Before You Leap)

Obviously, the likelihood of finding employment is an important consideration when choosing a career. There’s an abundance of information published relating to occupational employment trends, where the jobs are, and what are the prospects for future employment. Often times too much information is confusing. Conversely, locking into a single dataset that appears to be most relevant can also be misleading. Given the magnitude of time and money invested for career preparation, an additional issue concerns the responsibility of the information source to change or withdraw the message when the dynamics of the labor market change. To illustrate, we pose the following question.

Is investing in a career in Information Technology a smart decision?

Look to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the official source of occupational projections for the answer. “America’s Career InfoNet”, a widely publicized federal career information site, lists six Information Technology occupations in their list of the 25 fastest growing occupations over the 2004 – 2014 projection period. They are Network Systems and Data Communication Analysts; Computer Software Engineers, applications; Computer Software Engineers, systems software; Network and Computer Systems Administrators; Database Administrators; and Computer Systems Analysts. Combined these occupations are expected to grow a robust 42% over the projection period compared with an overall rate of 13% for all occupations. These occupations are expected to create 795,000 new jobs in the nation through 2014. Also, the industrial sector – Computer Systems Design and related services is forecast to expand 39%. Smart decision? You bet!!!

Look to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the official source of occupational and industry statistics for the answer. The December 2006, “Monthly Labor Review” published by BLS states that employment in Computer and Mathematical occupations declined 127,000 or 4% from 2000 to 2005. The six occupations listed above comprise about two-thirds of the Computer and Mathematical occupational category. Furthermore, jobs in the Computer Systems Design industry fell 59,100 or 5.0% over the first half of the decade. Smart decision????

We’re familiar with the matrix model and regression methodology used by BLS to develop industry and occupational projections and would not attempt to suggest a better method. However, we do suggest that when the projection data conflict so strongly with current trends, there is a grave responsibility to inform the public. The projection data are widely used by high school and college students and counselors across to nation to facilitate informed career decision-making. The human and monetary investments are too great to let this go unnoticed.

Smart decision – look beyond the numbers.